Chapter6, Ksiązki, WIND ENERGY - THE FACTS

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WIND ENERGY - THE FACTS
PART VI
SCENARIOS AND
TARGETS
Acknowledgements
Part VI was compiled by Arthouros Zervos of the
National Technical University of Athens, Greece (www.
ntua.gr), and Christian Kjaer of EWEA.
PART VI
INTRODUCTION
In December 2008, the EU agreed to a 20 per cent
binding target for renewable energy for 2020. The
agreement means that more than one third of the EU’s
electricity will come from renewable energy in 2020,
up from 15 per cent in 2005. To achieve this, the
European Commission has calculated that 12 per cent
of EU electricity should come from wind power.
Part VI takes different scenarios and targets for
wind energy development from the industry, the
International Energy Agency (IEA) and the European
Commission and compares them. It makes sense of
what they mean in ﬁ nancial, environmental, industrial
and political terms, both for the EU and globally.
It explains how factors such as energy efﬁ ciency,
offshore development and political decision-making
will have a signiﬁ cant effect on whether current
scenarios for total installed capacity and the percent-
age of electricity coming from wind power hold true.
Moreover, ﬂ uctuating oil prices affect avoided fuel
costs, and carbon prices determine how much wind
energy saves in avoided CO
2
.
These uncertainties have made it necessary for the
European Wind Energy Association (EWEA), the Global
Wind Energy Council (GWEC), the European Commission
and the IEA to develop differing scenarios for wind
energy development to 2020 and 2030.
Part VI of this volume uses a wide variety of graphs
and charts to depict and compare the various possi-
bilities. It looks at what these translate into in terms
of electricity production from wind. It discusses the
potential evolution of the cost of installed wind power
capacity and of the expenditure avoided thanks to
wind’s free fuel, again comparing EWEA, European
Commission and IEA scenarios.
Overall, the chapters in this ﬁ nal part demonstrate
through detailed analysis the relatively indeﬁ nite,
albeit bright, future of wind energy in Europe and
worldwide. Wind energy is set to continue its impres-
sive growth and become an ever more mainstream
power source. Yet speciﬁ c scenarios will remain open
to conjecture and modiﬁ cation due to the vast quantity
of unknowns to which wind energy development is
subject.
Overview and Assessment of
Existing Scenarios
The European Commission’s 1997 White Paper on
renewable sources of energy set the goal of doubling
the share of renewable energy in the EU’s energy mix
from 6 per cent to 12 per cent by 2010. It included a
target of 40,000 MW of wind power in the EU by 2010,
producing 80 TWh of electricity and saving 72 million
tonnes (Mt) of CO
2
. The 40,000 MW target was
reached in 2005. Another target of the White Paper
was to increase the share of electricity from renew-
able energy sources from 337 TWh in 1995 to 675
TWh in 2010. By the end of 2007, there was 56,535
MW of wind power capacity installed in the EU, pro-
ducing 119 TWh of electricity and saving approxi-
mately 90 Mt of CO
2
annually.
The European Commission’s White Paper was fol-
lowed by Directive 2001/77/EC on the promotion of
electricity from renewable energy sources. This impor-
tant piece of legislation for renewables has led the 27
Member States to develop frameworks for investments
in renewable energy. These frameworks had to include
ﬁ nancial instruments and reduce both administrative
and grid access barriers.
The directive set national indicative targets for the
contribution of electricity from renewables as a per-
centage of gross electricity consumption. The overall
goal set out in the directive was to increase the share
of electricity coming from renewables from 14 per
cent in 1997 to 22 per cent (21 per cent after enlarge-
ment) in 2010. With the latest EU directive for the
promotion of renewables, more than one third of the
EU’s electricity will come from renewable energy in
2020.
The 40,000 MW goal from the European Commission’s
White Paper formed EWEA’s target in 1997, but three
years later, due to the strong developments in the
416
WIND ENERGY - THE FACTS -
SCENARIOS AND TARGETS
German, Spanish and Danish markets for wind turbines,
EWEA increased its target by 50 per cent to 60,000
MW by 2010 (and 150,000 MW by 2020). In 2003,
EWEA once again increased its target, this time by 25
per cent to 75,000 MW by 2010 (and 180,000 MW by
2020). Due to the expansion of the EU with 12 new
Member States, EWEA has now increased its predic-
tion for 2010 to 80,000 MW, while maintaining its
2020 target of 180,000 MW and setting a target of
300,000 MW by 2030.
VI.1
SCENARIOS FOR THE EU-27
While EWEA is conﬁ dent that its predictions for wind
power capacity in the EU to 2010 will be met, there is
uncertainty about the projections for 2020 and 2030.
The likelihood of a signiﬁ cant market for offshore wind
power has been pushed beyond the 2010 timeframe,
predominantly as a result of strong onshore wind
market growth in the US, China and India in recent
years. Much also depends on the future EU regulatory
framework for the period after 2010.
In 2008, EWEA published three scenarios – low,
reference and high – for the development of wind
energy up to 2030.
1
Much of the development over the coming two
decades will depend on the evolution of the offshore
market, over which there is currently some uncertainty.
In December 2007, the European Commission announ-
ced a Communication on Offshore Wind Energy. As men-
tioned, EWEA’s reference scenario assumes 180 GW of
installed wind energy capacity in 2020 and 300 GW in
2030. The EU will have 350 GW (including 150 GW off-
shore) in the high scenario and 200 GW (including 40 GW
offshore) in the low scenario in 2030.
The 56.5 GW of installed capacity in the EU-27 by
the end of 2007 produces, in a normal wind year,
119 TWh of electricity, enough to meet 3.7 per cent of
EU electricity demand.
In terms of wind power’s electricity production and
its share of total EU power demand, there are large
differences between the three scenarios. Much
depends on whether total electricity demand in the EU
increases according to the European Commission’s
business-as-usual (BAU) scenario or stabilises accord-
ing to its energy efﬁ ciency (EFF) scenario.
As can be seen from Table VI.1.1, wind power will
produce between 176 TWh (low scenario) and
179 TWh (high scenario) in 2010, between 361 TWh
and 556 TWh in 2020, and between 571 TWh and
1104 TWh in 2030.
Figure VI.1.1: EWEA’s three wind power scenarios (in GW)
350
Offshore
Onshore
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2007
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Source: EWEA (2008a)
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