Charles Grant, wordperfector

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CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN REFORM
CAN EUROPE AND CHINA
SHAPE A NEW WORLD
ORDER?
Charles Grant with Katinka Barysch
about the CER
The Centre for European Reform is a think-tank devoted to improving the quality of the debate on
the European Union. It is a forum for people with ideas from Britain and across the continent to
discuss the many political, economic and social challenges facing Europe. It seeks to work with
similar bodies in other European countries, North America and elsewhere in the world.
Can Europe
and China
shape a new
world order?
The CER is pro-European but not uncritical. It regards European integration as largely beneﬁcial
but recognises that in many respects the Union does not work well. The CER therefore aims to
promote new ideas for reforming the European Union.
Director:
CHARLES GRANT
ADVISORY BOARD
PERCY BARNEVIK........................................
Board member, General Motors and Former Chairman, AstraZeneca
ANTONIO BORGES.....................................................................................................
Former Dean of INSEAD
NICK BUTLER (CHAIR)......................
Director, Centre for Energy Security & Sustainable Development, Cambridge
IAIN CONN ...................................
Group Managing Director and Chief Executive, Reﬁning & Marketing, BP p.l.c.
LORD DAHRENDORF ..........................
Former Warden of St Antony’s College, Oxford & European Commissioner
VERNON ELLIS............................................................................................
International Chairman, Accenture
RICHARD HAASS..................................................................................
President, Council on Foreign Relations
LORD HANNAY....................................................................................
Former Ambassador to the UN & the EU
IAN HARGREAVES........................................................................................................
Senior Partner, Ofcom
LORD HASKINS ..........................................................................................
Former Chairman, Northern Foods
FRANÇOIS HEISBOURG................................................
Senior Adviser, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique
LORD KERR...............................
Chairman, Imperial College London and Deputy Chairman, Royal Dutch Shell plc
CAIO KOCH-WESER................................................................................
Vice Chairman, Deutsche Bank Group
FIORELLA KOSTORIS PADOA SCHIOPPA...............................................
Professor, La Sapienza University, Rome
RICHARD LAMBERT........................................................
Director General, The Confederation of British Industry
PASCAL LAMY.........................................................
Director General, WTO and Former European Commissioner
DAVID MARSH..........................................................................................
Chairman, London & Oxford Group
DOMINIQUE MOÏSI................................................
Senior Adviser, Institut Français des Relations Internationales
JOHN MONKS..............................................................
General Secretary, European Trade Union Confederation
BARONESS PAULINE NEVILLE-JONES.........................
National Security Adviser to the leader of the oppposition
CHRISTINE OCKRENT......................................................................................
Editor in chief, France Télévision
STUART POPHAM.............................................................................................
Senior Partner, Clifford Chance
WANDA RAPACZYNSKI.......................................................
Former President of Management Board, Agora SA
LORD ROBERTSON............................
Deputy Chairman, Cable and Wireless and Former Secretary General, NATO
LORD SIMON ...........................................................
Former Minister for Trade and Competitiveness in Europe
PETER SUTHERLAND.......................................................
Chairman, BP p.l.c. and Goldman Sachs International
LORD TURNER .......................................................................
Non-executive Director, Standard Chartered PLC
ANTÓNIO VITORINO......................................................................................
Former European Commissioner
Charles Grant
with Katinka Barysch
Published by the Centre for European Reform (CER), 14 Great College Street, London, SW1P 3RX
Telephone +44 20 7233 1199, Facsimile +44 20 7233 1117, info@cer.org.uk, www.cer.org.uk
© CER MAY 2008
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ISBN 978 1 901229 83 7
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
AUTHORS’ ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Charles Grant
has been director of the Centre for European
Reform since 1998. He previously worked for
Euromoney
and
The Economist
. He is author of ‘Delors: Inside the house that
Jacques built’, published in 1994, and numerous CER publications,
including, most recently, ‘European choices for Gordon Brown’
and ‘Preparing for the multipolar world: European foreign and
security policy in 2020’, both published in 2007.
We are grateful to the many experts, ofﬁcials and politicians who
have provided a wealth of information, ideas and arguments for this
report. Many of them wish to remain anonymous but on the
Chinese side we would like to single out Feng Zhongping, Huang
Ping, Qin Gang and Zhou Hong for their help. Particular thanks
also go to those who have commented on various drafts, including
Richard Dowden, Daniel Large, David Shambaugh, Andrew Small,
May-Britt Stubaum and Peter Wilson. Our colleagues at the CER
have contributed many ideas, with Bobo Lo, Simon Tilford, Philip
Whyte and Tomas Valasek being especially helpful. Thanks to Kate
Meakins for lay-out and production.
Katinka Barysch
is the CER’s deputy director. Until 2002, she
worked as an economist and analyst at the Economist Intelligence
Unit. Before that she was a consultant and researcher for the
European Commission. Recent CER publications include: (as co-
author) ‘The Lisbon scorecard VIII: Is Europe ready for an
economic storm?’, February 2008; ‘Turkey’s role in European
energy security’, December 2007; and ‘Russia, realism and EU
unity’, July 2007.
When we quote an individual in the text, the absence of a footnote
indicates that the source is a private conversation.
We are grateful to British American Tobacco and to the German
Marshall Fund of the United States for supporting our work on China.
H
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Copyright of this publication is held by the Centre for European Reform. You may not copy, reproduce,
republish or circulate in any way the content from this publication except for your own personal and non-
commercial use. Any other use requires the prior written permission of the Centre for European Reform.
Contents
About the authors
Authors’ acknowledgements
Forewords
1 China and the EU in a multipolar world
1
2 A partnership that is not strategic
17
Box: The EU and human rights in China
28
3 Economic tensions
31
4 China and transatlantic relations
59
5 Priorities for a strategic partnership
69
Climate change
70
Weapons proliferation
78
Africa
82
Global governance
89
Box: China and global economic governance
96
6 Conclusion
101
Foreword
Foreword
G M F
The German Marshall Fund
of the United States
STRENGTHENING TRANSATLANTIC COOPERATION
British American Tobacco is delighted to support this perceptive analysis of
the EU’s relations with China. There is, to put it mildly, considerable interest
in the subject and there could well be a great deal at stake. The authors do
justice both to the current situation and to what might lie ahead.
The rise of China is now one of the principal strategic issues facing the
transatlantic community. While it ﬁrst assumed prominence during the spat
over the lifting of the EU arms embargo, Europeans and Americans are now
as likely to encounter China when addressing policy towards Iran, Africa, or
Central Asia as when dealing with traditional East Asian security issues.
The idea that the EU “stands a better chance of convincing China of the
beneﬁts of multilateralism than the Americans, who have a tendency to act
unilaterally and disregard international bodies such as the United Nations”
offers intriguing possibilities, provided that the EU can get its act together.
The authors also suggest practical strategic areas on which the EU and China
might focus, to begin building a deeper understanding of what a true
partnership could bring to both of them.
As China’s global reach and impact grows, dialogue and co-operation
between Europe and the United States are going to become ever more
important for policy-makers on both sides of the Atlantic, if they are going
to shape an effective response. The German Marshall Fund is pleased to be
supporting and organising a range of events and research exploring these
issues, and to have been working with the Centre for European Reform on a
number of them. This excellent paper is one of the ﬁrst to look at EU-China
relations in a fully global context and should be required reading for
Europeans and Americans alike.
Michael Prideaux
Director, Corporate & Regulatory Affairs
British American Tobacco
Ron Asmus
Executive Director, Transatlantic Center
The German Marshall Fund of the United States
The German Marshall Fund of the United States is a non-partisan American
public policy and grantmaking institution dedicated to promoting greater
co-operation and understanding between the United States and Europe.
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Charles Grant, wordperfector

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